The 2024 Election: Impacts on Employment & Staffing
This year, I had the opportunity to attend HR conferences in both Missouri and Kansas, where I gained valuable insights from experienced attorneys on how the upcoming election might impact employment law and staffing needs. Hearing directly from legal experts was not only beneficial but also eye-opening, as they covered possible regulatory changes that could reshape the job market. Below, I’ve compiled key takeaways from those conferences, detailing how each potential election outcome might impact the workforce.
Current Job Market Landscape
As we approach the election, economic uncertainty has slowed hiring in certain sectors, particularly those affected by fluctuating interest rates and inflation. Many companies are choosing to stay lean, cautious about committing to major workforce changes. However, demand remains strong for skilled talent in fields like healthcare, engineering, and the skilled trades. In these areas, long-standing shortages mean hiring continues, and flexible work arrangements are often leveraged as incentives.
If the Incumbent Party Retains Control
The consensus among the attorneys was that if the current administration continues, the job market may experience minimal regulatory disruption, allowing companies to move forward with existing workforce strategies. Here’s what businesses can anticipate under this scenario:
A. Labor and Employment Regulations
Worker Classification in the Gig Economy: One of the attorneys discussed the flexibility the current administration has maintained regarding gig worker classification. Continuation of these policies would benefit sectors that rely on freelance and contract talent, particularly in industries like tech, media, and retail.
Wage and Overtime Standards: Another attorney noted that wage and overtime adjustments are expected to remain gradual, with small increases rather than sweeping changes. This approach provides predictability for businesses, especially in retail and hospitality, where labor costs are more sensitive to wage policy shifts.
B. Corporate Tax and Hiring Incentives
Manufacturing and Trade Incentives: Attorneys highlighted the administration's ongoing focus on domestic manufacturing incentives. Tax credits and grants encourage businesses to expand, impacting hiring in engineering, production, and technology sectors.
Employee Retention Credit (ERC): Another likely outcome is the extension of the ERC, which assists businesses in keeping employees on payroll. As discussed in the conferences, businesses will need to carefully document compliance with ERC requirements to ensure they qualify for these credits, making HR documentation and retention policies critical.
C. Health and Safety Standards (OSHA)
OSHA Compliance: The expectation, according to conference insights, is that OSHA standards will remain stable with minor adjustments. For high-risk industries like construction and healthcare, this stability allows companies to maintain current safety practices without extensive new compliance requirements.
If a New Administration Takes Office
In contrast, a change in administration could bring more substantial shifts, particularly in areas of worker rights and corporate responsibility. Based on the perspectives shared by the attorneys, here are the primary areas that may be impacted:
A. Worker Protections and Union Rights
Worker Classification Changes: One session dove into how stricter classification laws may become a priority, particularly impacting the gig economy. A new administration may push for more protections, requiring businesses to offer benefits to a broader range of workers. This would have significant effects on industries reliant on freelance or temporary labor, necessitating a shift toward more traditional employment models.
Unionization and Collective Bargaining: Attorneys discussed an anticipated increase in unionization support, which would impact sectors with strong labor union presence, such as manufacturing and public services. HR departments may need to update training and workplace policies to comply with expanded union rights, which could create new HR challenges.
B. Wage Standards and Pay Transparency
Minimum Wage and Overtime Pay: A new administration is likely to push for accelerated minimum wage increases and stricter overtime eligibility. Higher labor costs would prompt businesses to reconsider staffing models and payroll management, especially in small and medium-sized businesses.
Pay Transparency and Equity Laws: We discussed how pay equity could become a federal priority, which would lead to more stringent documentation and transparency requirements. This change would impact hiring and HR practices, especially in high-paying fields like finance, tech, and legal services, where compensation structures often vary widely.
C. Health and Safety Regulations
Expanded OSHA Requirements: Attorneys highlighted that workplace safety could see expanded regulations, especially for pandemic preparedness and general health standards. New legal requirements could impact staffing strategies in industries like healthcare and hospitality, where physical safety protocols are critical.
D. Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) Policies
Federal DEI Mandates: Conference speakers anticipated potential federal DEI requirements, likely focused on hiring practices and workplace inclusivity. For industries where DEI progress has been slower, such as engineering and tech, compliance with these standards would require a more structured approach to inclusive hiring, retention, and advancement policies.
Preparing for Either Scenario The attorneys emphasized the importance of adaptability in workforce planning. Reviewing workforce classifications, planning for potential wage adjustments, and formalizing DEI policies are proactive steps that will help businesses remain compliant and resilient through either outcome. Additionally, focusing on strong talent acquisition strategies can help ensure that your team is prepared for both skill and cultural alignment, crucial for long-term stability.
Conclusion
The upcoming election could bring about significant changes in employment law, hiring incentives, and workforce planning. By preparing for possible regulatory shifts, businesses can navigate these transitions effectively and continue to attract and retain top talent, even as the landscape of employment law evolves. Whether the outcome leans toward continuity or change, understanding the legal implications will be key to workforce success in the years ahead.